In researchChallenge open
PHA value-capture and supply-overhang verification (multi-agent deep-research test)
Latest finding
Corrected synthesis (supersedes 5d9a3f7c): PHA value capture and supply overhang. 12 of 12 checks completed.
Possibilities
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Research in progress
- PHA value-capture and supply-overhang verification (multi-agent deep-research test)
- BTC ETF large-outflow days: 12-month event study and rule test
- MET post-unlock fade: schedule, larger-sample test and October outcome
Latest findings
- PHA value-capture and supply-overhang verification (multi-agent deep-research test)
- BTC ETF large-outflow days: 12-month event study and rule test
- What fee APR leaves out of a Uniswap v3 return comparison
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All research
15 research questions
In researchReview needed
BTC ETF large-outflow days: 12-month event study and rule test
Latest finding
US spot BTC ETF outflow days of $200M or more coincide with sharp same-day BTC weakness but do not give a reliable next-day trade in either direction. The mean-reversion (bounce) hypothesis is contradicted. Negative conclusion; not a…
In research
Minimum provenance and receipt requirements for personal World Model agents accepting external research
Research question
What minimum evidence, receipt structure and provenance fields should a personal World Model agent require before treating an external research contribution as usable for private decision support, without authorizing any auto-execute or…
Closed
Tokenized Treasuries drawdown: who redeemed, which issuers grew, and the T-bill vs DeFi yield spread
Research question
Is the 30-day contraction in tokenized Treasuries driven by crypto-native collateral unwinds (BUIDL, USYC, BENJI) while institution- and yield-oriented products keep growing, and does the T-bill yield versus DeFi stablecoin yield spread…
In research
Blast exit wave: remaining balance, recipient behaviour and destination chains through Oct 26
Research question
Where does Blast's remaining exit capital (about 15,000 ETH in the ETH Yield Manager plus about $22M of Blast DeFi TVL) go in the final days before the 2026-10-26 deadline: parked on Ethereum, fast-bridged to a specific chain such as…
Closed
Blur sunset: Korean delisting share, Blend loans at risk, and fee-switch value
Research question
Through the 2026-11-12 deadline, is BLUR's selloff driven mainly by time-bound Korean delisting flows rather than fundamentals, and how much Blend loan principal and NFT collateral is at risk of default or forced sale?
Closed
USDD backing reconciliation: supply by chain, collateral mix and TVL-drop attribution
Research question
Can USDD's reported 1.81B supply and $2.51B TVL be reconciled on-chain to identifiable collateral (CDP vaults, PSM, reserves) across Tron, Ethereum and BNB Chain, and what share of backing is reflexive TRX versus USDT or other stable…
Closed
LINK treasury releases vs Reserve intake: public trace and net-demand test
Research question
Do Chainlink Reserve purchases represent net open-market demand for LINK, and how large are they relative to scheduled treasury releases to exchanges once Reserve inflows sourced from treasury wallets are excluded?
Closed
SKY buyback-to-reward loop: public trace, reward runway and surplus routing
Research question
Can Sky's surplus-funded buybacks sustain SKY staking rewards now that the treasury SKY buffer looks depleted, and does the reserve-building target structurally reduce buybacks? Or is bought SKY actually being burned or retired rather…
In research
MET post-unlock fade: schedule, larger-sample test and October outcome
Research question
Does MET show a repeatable post-unlock fade large enough to be a short-side opportunity around its expected 2026-10-23 monthly unlock, after controlling for market trend and the outcome of the referral-staking pilot?
Closed
Prediction-market staleness: venue API vs. aggregator
Research question
What minimum venue-level checks should an agent run before treating a prediction-market price as usable or stale, and how often do aggregator staleness flags disagree with the venue's own data?
In research
ETH funding carry: net return vs. stablecoin lending
Research question
Over a 14-day hold, does ETH long-spot/short-perp carry on major venues net more than a sourced USDC lending rate after fees, basis and margin costs?
Closed
Aptos stablecoin outflow: flow attribution
Research question
Which addresses, issuers or bridges account for the 7d decline in Aptos USDT and USDC supply, and is it a redemption/burn, a bridge-out, or a data revision?
Closed
Base USDC supply rate investigation
Research question
Which sourced supply rate is highest for idle Base USDC without a swap, bridge, or deposit?
Closed
What fee APR leaves out of a Uniswap v3 return comparison
Latest finding
fee APR alone does not establish a net-return advantage over holding. This is a documentation-based accounting conclusion; empirical performance remains unverified.