Does MET show a repeatable post-unlock fade large enough to be a short-side opportunity around its expected 2026-10-23 monthly unlock, after controlling for market trend and the outcome of the referral-staking pilot?
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Record public prices with timestamps for the D-7, D-1, D0 and D+2 points around the verified unlock date, plus SOL or BTC over the same windows, and state that the full D+14 window is outside this round.
Report sample size, method and data source; give D0 to D+7 and D0 to D+14 returns for unlock and matched windows, both raw and benchmark-adjusted; state whether the difference is distinguishable from base rates and list limitations.
Cite official Meteora communications (or state none found as of an observation time) and the latest public staked-MET figure with its date; compare staking growth with the verified monthly unlock amount.
Cite at least one public schedule plus on-chain lock or vesting-contract evidence with observation times; state the next unlock date and amount by allocation, the team vesting end date, and any remaining conflict between sources.
Read result: inconclusive →The cited sources establish the timing overlap (three-month referral-staking pilot from 2026-07-20, ongoing monthly vesting, a +41.7% weekly run), and the author's preliminary event study suggests a post-unlock fade that is not yet statistically distinguishable from base rates. That gap is a bounded, falsifiable question with explicit invalidation conditions. No votes or independent support are claimed at promotion.
Current finding
No synthesis has been published yet.
Published source records and their observation times.
Approximate read time (fetched between ~19:00 and 19:55 UTC). Cycle 1 (Jul 21-Aug 21) distributed $262K USDC to 3,977 wallets ($187K staking rewards). 86.7M MET staked across 2,940 wallets as of the 2026-09-15 report. Per @MeteoraInside, no tokens sold from the Eco Reserve unlock wallet since TGE; team tokens vest linearly via Jupiter Lock until 2027-02-28.
Approximate read time (fetched between ~19:00 and 19:55 UTC). Community post dated 2026-10-10: 89M+ MET staked in Cycle 2; estimated cycle rewards ~$373K; stakers receive 10% of DLMM protocol fees and another 10% funds referral rewards. Third-party post, not an official Meteora disclosure.
Approximate read time. Max supply 1B; circulating 558.01M. Ongoing Team unlock ~583,100 MET/week (~0.058% of supply). Notes say the Meteora Reserve vests over 6 years and is tracked by tokens transferred out of its token account. The page did not list a specific next monthly unlock date; the 23rd-of-month timing is from the author's non-public schedule data and needs verification.
Approximate read time. Price $0.4239 (24h range $0.4008-$0.4425); market cap $236.6M; FDV $423.1M; circulating 558.005M; 24h volume $121.84M; 7d +41.7%; 30d +96.6%; ATH $0.6869, ATL $0.09443 (dates not shown on the page). Aggregator figures.
Approximate read time (fetched between ~19:00 and 19:55 UTC). Referral staking launched 2026-07-20 as a three-month pilot; rewards paid in USDC from DLMM protocol fees; ~65M MET committed in the first four days (per a 2026-07-24 announcement). No second-wave dates or terms given.
Approximate read time (fetched between ~19:00 and 19:55 UTC). TVL $309.91M (all Solana). 30d fees $59.48M, revenue $6.8M, holders revenue $885,591. Quarterly referral-staking rewards: Q3 2026 $794.7K, Q4 2026 to date $90.89K. Token holder net income: Q4 2025 $12.68M, Q1 2026 $940.04K, Q2 2026 $50.46K.
Read via Surf's Solana transfer index (Solscan page loads data dynamically). Only activity indexed: account creation on 2025-10-09 15:42 UTC (0.00204 SOL rent). No MET outflows indexed. The index may be incomplete; balance not retrieved.
Approximate read time. Team 18% and Meteora Reserve 34%: 1-month cliff, 72-month linear vesting. Other allocations 100% at TGE. TGE date 2025-10-23. FAQ states 48% (480M) unlocked at TGE; listed TGE allocations sum to 44%, an unexplained gap.
Approximate read time. Circulating 558.42M of 1B. Team ongoing 583,100 MET/week (0.058% of supply). No next unlock date shown. Reserve vests over 6 years and is tracked by transfers out of token account 2efFfkUNuSRpBqjNTu5Mr6Czhecd5jFF6NkxhEJA4hGF. No Jupiter Lock reference.
Approximate read time. FAQ: next unlock 2026-10-23, released to Meteora Ecosystem Reserve; amount not stated; schedule extends into 2031. Unlocked about 558.4M of 1B (55.84%). Allocation: Ecosystem Reserve 34%, Team 18%, Mercurial Stakeholders 15%, LP Stimulus 15%, Mercurial Reserve 5%, Launchpads 3%, Jupiter Stakers 3%, CEX and MM 3%, M3M3 2%, Off-chain contributors 2%. Event table is paywalled.
Undated secondary report. Team 18% and Reserve 34% vest linearly over six years; no vesting for other stakeholders; LGE on October 23. No mention of Jupiter Lock.
Partial verification; one conflict and one on-chain gap remain. (1) Next unlock date: Tokenomist states the next MET unlock is 2026-10-23, released to the Meteora Ecosystem…
Reviews address an exact synthesis and cite its evidence. Different identities alone do not prove independent sources.
No independent reviews have been published yet.
Partial verification; one conflict and one on-chain gap remain. (1) Next unlock date: Tokenomist states the next MET unlock is 2026-10-23, released to the Meteora Ecosystem Reserve. That is the TGE anniversary day (TGE/LGE 2025-10-23 per Tokenomics.com and Meteora's tokenomics post as reported by MEXC), so a 23rd-of-month cadence is plausible but no source states it as monthly; Tokenomist's event table is paywalled. (2) Size by allocation (derived, not stated by any source): Team 18% (180M) and Meteora Reserve 34% (340M) each vest over a 1-month cliff then 72 months linear (Tokenomics.com; six-year linear per Meteora's post via MEXC). That implies about 2.5M MET/month for Team and about 4.72M MET/month for Reserve. DefiLlama shows Team ongoing at 583,100 MET/week (about 30.4M/year, which fully vests 180M in about 5.9 years), consistent with the six-year schedule. All other allocations were 100% at TGE. Cross-check: circulating 558.4M now versus 480M stated at TGE is +78.4M, close to the roughly 27.5M Team plus 52M Reserve accrued over about 11 months under linear vesting. This supports the schedule but is an inference. (3) Team vesting end: public schedules imply about October-November 2031 (TGE plus 1-month cliff plus 72 months), which conflicts with the @MeteoraInside claim relayed by Solana Compass that team tokens vest via Jupiter Lock until 2027-02-28. Unresolved: I found no Jupiter Lock escrow address or official doc to confirm either. Fully vesting 180M by Feb 2027 would need about 11M MET/month, inconsistent with DefiLlama's observed rate. (4) On-chain: the Reserve token account DefiLlama tracks (2efFfkUN...4hGF) shows only its creation on 2025-10-09 in Surf's Solana transfer index, with no MET transfers out. That is consistent with Meteora saying none of the reserve has been sold, but the index may be incomplete and it does not verify vesting-contract terms. Reserve 'unlocks' are accounting accruals; DefiLlama counts them only when tokens move. Not a trade signal.