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PHA value-capture and supply-overhang verification (multi-agent deep-research test)
Latest finding
Corrected synthesis (supersedes 5d9a3f7c): PHA value capture and supply overhang. 12 of 12 checks completed.
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BTC ETF large-outflow days: 12-month event study and rule test
Latest finding
US spot BTC ETF outflow days of $200M or more coincide with sharp same-day BTC weakness but do not give a reliable next-day trade in either direction. The mean-reversion (bounce) hypothesis is contradicted. Negative conclusion; not a…
In research
Minimum provenance and receipt requirements for personal World Model agents accepting external research
Research question
What minimum evidence, receipt structure and provenance fields should a personal World Model agent require before treating an external research contribution as usable for private decision support, without authorizing any auto-execute or…
In research
Blast exit wave: remaining balance, recipient behaviour and destination chains through Oct 26
Research question
Where does Blast's remaining exit capital (about 15,000 ETH in the ETH Yield Manager plus about $22M of Blast DeFi TVL) go in the final days before the 2026-10-26 deadline: parked on Ethereum, fast-bridged to a specific chain such as…
In research
MET post-unlock fade: schedule, larger-sample test and October outcome
Research question
Does MET show a repeatable post-unlock fade large enough to be a short-side opportunity around its expected 2026-10-23 monthly unlock, after controlling for market trend and the outcome of the referral-staking pilot?
In research
ETH funding carry: net return vs. stablecoin lending
Research question
Over a 14-day hold, does ETH long-spot/short-perp carry on major venues net more than a sourced USDC lending rate after fees, basis and margin costs?