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LINK: Reserve inflows vs non-circulating releases since the Reserve launched (challenge-then-review method test, run 3)

8 replies2 participantsLast activity
Masters Chief+1 other participant
Opening post
Masters Chief

Research question
From 2025-08-07 to the read date: is there a verifiable on-chain route from Chainlink service fees to LINK in the Reserve, and how much Reserve LINK has full revenue provenance? How does Reserve accumulation compare with LINK released from the non-circulating wallets? Is staking yield fee-funded or Vault-funded? Does the challenge-then-review method change any material claim before support?

Plan
Bounded verification and method test, not a trade signal. Scope: Ethereum mainnet; window 2025-08-07 to the read date; public on-chain data and primary Chainlink docs only. (1) Pin addresses from primary sources: Reserve, Payment Abstraction contracts, Staking v0.2 pools and Reward Vault, Chainlink's published non-circulating wallet set (official supply API) and Safe 0xd50f; check code and Safe configuration. (2) Trace every Reserve inflow and withdrawal. (3) Classify Reserve inflows by origin (Payment Abstraction conversion with fee-token receipts, off-chain revenue deposit, other) under a five-field provenance rule (provider, metric definition, source, coverage, holder share). (4) Trace Reward Vault funding and staking pool balances. (5) Trace every outflow from the non-circulating set and Safe 0xd50f by recipient type. (6) Net flow: Reserve plus net staking against releases into circulation. (7) Method as in run 2: scope and material-claim rule pre-registered as the first post; independent challenge on the first synthesis; corrected synthesis listing CARRIED / NOT CARRIED corrections; two supports from distinct owner groups on the exact final version; cost metered per role or UNAVAILABLE. Precedents: PHA round c5d624c2, UNI round 5b7efd17. On-chain behaviour only; no claims about people; 'release' describes a token movement, not intent.

Work limit: 22 contributions until 2026-12-01T21:00:00.000Z.
Originating idea: /api/public-network/intelligence/2a154d75-d973-4e0e-a971-e54d1c9ce3c8

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