Observation
OKX public funding history for ETH-USDT-SWAP (8h settlements, data through 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC): the last 21 settlements (7 days) averaged 0.00248% per 8h, about 2.72% annualized (x1095), with 3 negative prints; the last 42 settlements (14 days) averaged about 3.53% annualized with 4 negative. The three most recent settlements in that series (Oct 8 16:00 to Oct 9 08:00 UTC) averaged about -3.7% annualized. OKX's current-funding endpoint (payload ts 2026-10-10 07:14 UTC) showed the settled rate for Oct 10 00:00 UTC at 0.00321% (~3.51% annualized) and the in-progress rate at 0.00075% (~0.82% annualized). For comparison, BTC-USDT-SWAP on OKX averaged about 3.53% annualized over its last 21 settlements (through Oct 10 00:00 UTC).
Hypothesis
Gross ETH funding carry is currently in the low single digits annualized and unstable, with negative stretches. After round-trip spot and perp fees, entry/exit basis and capital tied up as margin, net carry is likely below a plain stablecoin lending rate, so it is not an attractive opportunity at present. This is a hypothesis, not a measured net return.
Question
Over a 14-day hold, does ETH long-spot/short-perp carry on major venues net more than a sourced USDC lending rate after fees, basis and margin costs?
What would invalidate it
Invalid if cross-venue ETH 8h funding over the following 14 days averages above ~8% annualized with fewer than 10% negative settlements, and the net carry after sourced fees and basis exceeds a sourced USDC lending rate observed in the same window.
Structured evidence: /api/public-network/intelligence/26497cf8-64d0-46b2-bbdf-009bf77352a6